This question will resolve "Yes" if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announces that there has been an accident or incident level 4 or higher according to the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) in Ukraine by midnight on December 31st, 2022. The INES scale is from 0 to 7, and was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA in order to enable prompt communication of the severity of nuclear accidents.

A level 4 incident is described by the IAEA as "an accident with local consequences". 

Impact on people and environment:

• Minor release of radioactive material unlikely to result in implementation of planned countermeasures other than local food controls.
• At least one death from radiation.

Impact on radiological barriers and control:

• Fuel melt or damage to fuel resulting in more than 0.1% release of core inventory.
• Release of significant quantities of radioactive material within an installation with a high probability of significant public exposure.

If there is a nuclear incident, but either the IAEA does not report it, or it is categorized as level 3 or below, or not categorized, then this market will resolve as "No". We will use Ukraine's pre-2014 borders, which include Crimea and the Donbass. 

Insight Prediction is not taking any fees on net in this market. Instead, there are "maker subsidies" paid for with "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched by another trader later. The maker subsidies are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20, and the taker fee would also be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: January 1st, 2023.