How Many Countries Will Ratify NATO Accession of Finland or Sweden by October 1?

Contract

<26
<26

Latest Yes Price

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

26
26

Latest Yes Price

0.5¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.5%
European Decimal Odds: 200
American Odds: +19900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

27
27

Latest Yes Price

20¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 20%
European Decimal Odds: 5
American Odds: +400
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

28
28

Latest Yes Price

55¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 55%
European Decimal Odds: 1.818
American Odds: -122.2
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

>28
>28

Latest Yes Price

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 8%
European Decimal Odds: 12.5
American Odds: +1150
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-09-06 2022-10-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively to the bracket in which falls the number of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states that have formally ratified the accession protocols of Finland and/or Sweden to join NATO by 11:59PM ET on October 1, 2022. In the event that a country has ratified the accession protocols for only one of the two countries, that will be sufficient to count for this market. The resolution source will be official reporting from NATO (e.g. https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession) or a consensus of credible reporting from the governments of NATO member countries. If the Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA) for a member country announces ratification or the MFA for Finland and/or Sweden confirms a country's ratification (e.g. https://twitter.com/Ulkoministerio/status/1555181398943797248), this will also be considered satisfactory for this market. If a country later revokes ratification, this will have no bearing on market outcome. Insight Prediction maintains complete discretion over the resolution of this market in the event of irregularities or political controversy. End Date: 10/01/2022.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here