Will Sam Bankman-Fried Go on the Run Before 2023?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 13%
European Decimal Odds: 7.692
American Odds: +669.2
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-11-10 2023-01-01 USD 0%


This is a market on whether Sam Bankman-Fried (CEO of FTX) will be declared to be "on-the-run" by December 31st, 2022 at 11:59PM ET. For the purposes of this market, Bankman-Fried will be considered "on-the-run" if credible reporting from a major news source (e.g. New York Times, Wall Street Journal, BBC) confirms that Bankman-Fried has either vacated to a country with no extradition treaties, or otherwise vanished while escaping prosecution, then this market will resolve as "Yes". If Bankman-Fried is not considered to be "on-the-run" by December 31, 2022 at 11:59PM ET, then this market will resolve to "No". In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 12/31/2022

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.

Update: by a country with no extradition treaty, we mean countries with no extradition to the US, or if there is evidence of his prosecution in another country (e.g., the Bahamas), no extradition to the country for which he is being prosecuted.