Will Twitter Report More Than 240 Million Monthly Active Users in Q4 2022? 


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 90%
European Decimal Odds: 1.111
American Odds: -900
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-11-15 2023-03-01 USD 0%


Twitter reports the average number of global monetizable daily active users in its quarterly filings (eg https://s22.q4cdn.com/826641620/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/Final_Q2%2722_Earnings_Release.pdf). This market resolves to "Yes" if Twitter reports a number of more than 240 million. This market resolves to "No" if the number equal to or less than 240 million or no number is given for this specific statistic by the end of February (midnight using Eastern Standard Time). 

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End: February 28, 2023.