Will Russia Gain Control of Part of Siversk, Bakhmut, or Slovyansk by August 15th?


Latest Yes Price


Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 4%
European Decimal Odds: 25
American Odds: +2400
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-07-11 2022-08-17 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if Russia gains control of any part of Siversk, Bakhmut, or Slovyansk cities at any point in time before August 15th according to maps provided by https://understandingwar.org/ (The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW)

This market can also resolve as "Yes" if both of our alternative mapping sources unequivocally show Russia in control of part of the towns of Siversk, Bakhmut, or Slovyansk by August 15th. These sources are: (1) https://liveuamap.com/ and (2) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg.

This market shall resolve "No" if none of these events happen. 

There are "taker fees" on this market, of .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20. There are no "maker" fees of any kind.  The full taker fee schedule is here.  End Date: 08/15/2022