Will Russia Conquer Luhansk by July 15th?


Luhansk Conquered?
Luhansk Conquered?

Latest Yes Price



Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 90%
European Decimal Odds: 1.111
American Odds: -900
Bid Price Bid Size
Ask Price Ask Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-06-13 2022-07-17 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if the totality of Luhansk Oblast is under the de facto control of Russian forces as of July 15th, 2022, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market is liveuamap.com. Any area shaded in red on liveuamap.com will be considered under Russian de facto control.

In the case of an irregularity with liveuamap.com or any other controversy Insight Prediction reserves the right to use other highly regarded mapping sources to resolve this market including but not limited to: 

  1. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraine-conflict-updates
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
  3. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

There are "taker fees" on this market, of .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20. The full taker fee schedule is here.  End Date: 07/17/2022