Will There Be an Armed Conflict Between Taiwan and China Before 2024?

Contract

Best Yes Price

15¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 15%
European Decimal Odds: 6.667
American Odds: +566.7
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-23 2024-01-02 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that there has been an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 01/01/2024

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.