Will Twitter Have an Outage by January 31st?

Contract

Best Yes Price

20¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 20%
European Decimal Odds: 5
American Odds: +400
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-16 2023-02-02 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Twitter has any partial or major outages before January 31, 2023, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Twitter API, specifically information found on https://api.twitterstat.us. "Major Outages" are color-coded to red, and "Partial Outages" are color-coded to orange. Outages will be displayed in the table of systems on the "Twitter API Status" page, or in the tables of dates listed beneath it under the titles "Past Incidents" and "Incident History". 

If Twitter is experiencing a global outage and the API has not reported the outage within one hour, then this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 02/01/2023

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.