How Much Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' Gross Domestically by January 31, 2023?

Contract

Below $625,000,000

Best Yes Price

97¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 97%
European Decimal Odds: 1.031
American Odds: -3233.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

$625,000,000 - $640,000,000

Best Yes Price

22¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 22%
European Decimal Odds: 4.545
American Odds: +354.5
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Over $640,000,000

Best Yes Price

0.1¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.1%
European Decimal Odds: 1000
American Odds: +99900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-14 2023-02-02 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively to the bracket in which falls the total domestic gross for all dates up to, and including, January 31, 2023 for the film 'Avatar: The Way of Water' according to Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2520744705/). The market will be resolvable once Box Office Mojo updates with final actual figures rather than initial studio estimates, and the "Domestic Daily" tab and "To Date" column will be used to determine the domestic gross as of January 31, 2023. If the film grosses precisely $625,000,000 or $640,000,000, then the market will resolve to the middle bracket ("$625,000,000 - $640,000,000"). In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 02/01/2023

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.