Will Avraham Eisenberg Be Found Guilty and Sentenced for Market Manipulation?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 5%
European Decimal Odds: 20
American Odds: +1900
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-25 2024-04-02 USD 0%


On December 27, 2022, Avraham Eisenberg was arrested in Puerto Rico after being charged with market manipulation offenses regarding the cryptocurrency exchange "Mango Markets" in the Southern District of New York case "1:22-mj-10337-UA - UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - v. - AVRAHAM EISENBERG".

If Avraham Eisenberg is sentenced to a prison term of at least six months by March 31, 2024 at 11:59:00 PM ET, then this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether or not he actually serves the sentence. If the trial has not concluded by the end date, then the market will resolve to "No". If Avraham Eisenberg is sentenced to a prison term of less than six months or sentenced with no prison term, then the market will resolve to "No". Any appeals regarding this case or other future cases brought forth against Avraham Eisenberg will have no bearing on the resolution of this market, and only the initial verdict by the court will be considered. If the charges are dismissed, or criteria for positive resolution are not met when the trial concludes, then the market may resolve to "No" before March 31, 2024 at 11:59:00 PM ET. The resolution source will be official information from the Southern District Court of New York, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 04/01/2024

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.