Will Russian Troops Enter Odessa, Ukraine in 2022?

Contract

Russian Troops in Odessa in 2022?
Russian Troops in Odessa in 2022?

Latest Yes Price

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Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-02-24 2023-12-07 USD 3%

Rules

Resolution is designed to be the same as metaculus. This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Odessa" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Odessa for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits. Fees are 3% of profits.