Will Russian Troops Enter Lviv in 2022?


Latest Yes Price


Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-02-24 2023-01-07 USD 3%


This resolution criteria comes via Metaculus. This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Lviv" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Lviv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government that is recognized by the US government as legitimate. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.