Will Ukraine be Partitioned? (200,000 km2)
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If at least 200,000 km2 of territory within Ukraine’s sovereign borders are under the de facto control of any entity which is not the UN recognized Ukrainian State on December 31st, 11:59 PM EST this market will resolve as “Yes”.
For the purposes of resolution “sovereign borders” encompass all territory of Ukraine as established in article 5 of the 1991 Law on the Succession of Ukraine (excluding territorial waters). This includes territory under the de facto control of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republic as well as Crimea.
This market will be resolved using a combination of OSINT (including commercial satellite imagery) and reporting from reputable sources.
Ukraine spans an area of 603,628 km2 of which about 43,744 km² or 7,2% of which was occupied by Russia and Russian backed forces prior to Russia’s full scale invasion on 2/23/2022.
There is a 3% profit fee for this market. End date 01/01/2023