Will Russia Invade Any Country Other Than Ukraine in 2022?


Russian Invasion
Russian Invasion

Latest Yes Price


Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-02-25 2023-01-04 USD 3%


This question will resolve positively if, between February 24, 2022 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that >100 Russian ground troops have entered another country. From the statement, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders and without permission of the currently recognized government of that country or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from Feb 24, 2022 to Jan 1, 2023." Question via Metaculus

There is a 3% profit fee for this market. End Date: 01/01/2023