Will Russia Capture a Major Ukrainian City by the End of May, 2023?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
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Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-02-22 2023-06-01 USD 0%


This is a market on whether Russia will capture or surround a major Ukrainian city (with a population over 100,000) by June, 2023. Examples of some cities close to the front lines that would qualify include Sumy, Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.  Note that this question is borrowed from Metaculus. Maps and analysis from the Institute for the Study of War will be used to resolve this question. 

The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.  This means that bets placed after announcement of a city being surrounded or captured will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 6/01/2023