Will PredictIt be in operation in the US past April 30, 2023? The CFTC originally withdrew PredictIt's no-action letter (NAL), with an order to wind down all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market no later than 11:59PM ET on February 15, 2023. On January 26, 2023, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an injunction halting the closure and providing temporary relief to allow PredictIt to operate while a decision is made by the courts. On March 2, 2023, the CFTC issued a new letter revoking the NAL after having rescinded their original withdrawal (an attempt to circumvent the ongoing case in the courts) and giving until April 5, 2023 for Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) to provide a response.

This market will resolve as yes if (1) the CFTC reverses this decision, and reinstates PredictIt's no-action letter (thus, an early resolution is possible), (2) PredictIt continues to operate in the US and take bets after April 30, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This could happen if, for example, the CFTC grants an extension of the deadline or a court decision determines PredictIt should be allowed to operate (or prior injunction continues to stand). Note that if PredictIt, for example, moves offshore and operates without the CFTC's blessing, this market will still resolve to "No", even if a few Americans continue to use the site. Also, if they have to close down temporarily (for longer than 48 hours) after which they plan to re-open under a different legal framework (e.g. PredictIt Exchange), then this market will still resolve as "No". Note that if PredictIt continues to operate, but does not take new bets for a period of at least 48 hours, then this will resolve as "No". End Date: 05/01/23

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.