Will There be a Nuclear Escalation in 2022?


Nuclear Escalation
Nuclear Escalation

Latest Yes Price



Bid Price Bid Size
Ask Price Ask Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-03-02 2023-01-04 USD 3%


This market is on whether either Russia or the United States raise their nuclear alert levels. This market will resolve positively if either:

  • If Russia publicly acknowledges or there are credible reports that Russia has increased its nuclear readiness level from a level two “Elevated” status to either level three “Military Danger” or level four “Full”
  • If the U.S. publicly acknowledges or there are credible reports that the U.S. has increased its nuclear readiness level to a DEFCON 3 or below

Russia has four levels of nuclear alert status which increase in severity which can be translated as:  1. Constant 2. Elevated  3. Military Danger  4. Full

The U.S. has five levels of alert (DEFCONs) increasing in severity. These levels could be described simply as: DEFCON 5 Lowest state of readiness, DEFCON 4 Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures, DEFCON 3 increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness, DEFCON 2 next step to nuclear war, and DEFCON 1 nuclear war is imminent or has already begun.

The U.S. has only entered DEFCON 3 or below five times since its introduction in 1959. It has reached DEFCON 2 twice, during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Guld War. The U.S. has entered DEFCON 3 three times, during the Yom Kippur War, during Operation Paul Bunyan in 1976, and after the September 11 attacks.

There is a 3% profit fee on this market. End Date: 01/01/2023