Will There Be a Nuclear Escalation in 2022?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-03-02 2023-01-04 USD 0%


This market is on whether either Russia or the United States raise their nuclear alert levels. This market will resolve positively if either:

  • If Russia publicly acknowledges or there are credible reports that Russia has increased its nuclear readiness level from a level two “Elevated” status to either level three “Military Danger” or level four “Full”
  • If the U.S. publicly acknowledges or there are credible reports that the U.S. has increased its nuclear readiness level to a DEFCON 3 or below

Russia has four levels of nuclear alert status which increase in severity which can be translated as:  1. Constant 2. Elevated  3. Military Danger  4. Full

The U.S. has five levels of alert (DEFCONs) increasing in severity. These levels could be described simply as: DEFCON 5 Lowest state of readiness, DEFCON 4 Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures, DEFCON 3 increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness, DEFCON 2 next step to nuclear war, and DEFCON 1 nuclear war is imminent or has already begun.

The U.S. has only entered DEFCON 3 or below five times since its introduction in 1959. It has reached DEFCON 2 twice, during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Guld War. The U.S. has entered DEFCON 3 three times, during the Yom Kippur War, during Operation Paul Bunyan in 1976, and after the September 11 attacks.

End Date: 01/01/2023

Update: The "Bet Locks" feature has been enabled on 11/28/2022.  This means that bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.