Will Russia Conquer the Donbass by September 15th 2022?


Donbass Conquered
Donbass Conquered

Latest Yes Price



Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.1%
European Decimal Odds: 1000
American Odds: +99900
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-06-15 2022-09-17 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if the entirety of the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts are under de facto Russian control on September 15th, 11:59 PM ET. This market will rely on liveuamap.com as the primary resolution source. Any area shaded in red on liveuamap.com will be considered under Russian de facto control.

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion on 2/23/2022 the Russian backed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) controlled 17,633 km2 of territory in Donetsk and Luhansk.

In the case of an irregularity with liveuamap.com or any other controversy Insight Prediction reserves the right to use other highly regarded mapping sources to resolve this market including but not limited to: 

  1. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraine-conflict-updates
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
  3. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

There are "taker fees" on this market, of .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20. The full taker fee schedule is here.  End Date: 09/17/2022

Rules Clarification: Note that the alternative sources will only be used in the case where (a) liveuamaps is not available, (b) it is clear liveuamaps has stopped updating their maps, or (c) there are flagrant inacurracies with liveuamaps that appear to be a departure from their normal methodology. Simply being different from the backup sources will not count as an "irregularity".