Will Alexander Lukashenko Be President Through the End of 2023?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 98%
European Decimal Odds: 1.02
American Odds: -4900
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-03-27 2024-01-01 USD 0%


This market shall resolve to "Yes" if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption through December 31st, 2023.   Resolution Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/   

The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.  This means that bets placed after announcement of Lukashenko leaving office or confirmation will be returned. This could also include an announcement that Putin has suffered a debilitating injury, such as a stroke or heart attack, or from from a car accident that ultimately results in him leaving office, or from an announcement that he will step down in the future. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 1/1/2024