Will Ukraine Control Kherson City on September 15th, 2022?


Kherson Liberated?
Kherson Liberated?

Latest Yes Price



Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.3%
European Decimal Odds: 333.333
American Odds: +33233.3
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-06-21 2022-09-17 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if Russia is no longer in total control of “The Oak” Park in Kherson City on September 15th, 2022, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market is liveuamap.com. Any area shaded in red on liveuamap.com will be considered under Russian control. If any part of “The Oak” park is not under Russian control on September 15th, 2022, 11:59 PM this market will resolve positively. If the totality of “The Oak” park is under Russian control (shaded red on liveuamap.com) this market will resolve negatively.  

In the case of an irregularity with liveuamap.com or any other controversy Insight Prediction reserves the right to use other highly regarded mapping sources to resolve this market including but not limited to: 

  1. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraine-conflict-updates
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
  3. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

There are "taker fees" on this market, of .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20. The full taker fee schedule is here.  End Date: 09/17/2022

Rules Clarification: Note that the alternative sources will only be used in the case where (a) liveuamaps is not available, (b) it is clear liveuamaps has stopped updating their maps, or (c) there are flagrant inacurracies with liveuamaps that appear to be a departure from their normal methodology. Simply being different from the backup sources will not count as an "irregularity".