Will Wagner Invade Ukraine from Belarus?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-06-27 2023-11-01 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if PMC Wagner attempts to invade Ukraine from the territory of Belarus by October 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. Resolution will rely solely on reporting from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Note that if Wagner fighters first return to Russia or another country, and then invade Ukraine, or return to Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, or Zaporizhzhia and participate in the war it will not affect the resolution of this market. 

The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.  This means that bets placed after announcement of Wagner invading Ukraine from Belarus will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 10/30/2023