Will Ukraine Sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by Jan 31st, 2024?

Market Resolved: NO


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2023-07-21 2024-02-01 USD 0.075% -0.025%


This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point by January 31st, 2024, 24:00 ET.  The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. This market will resolve as yes if the ISW shows that Ukraine has broken Russia's land bridge, i.e., that Russia has no contiguous control over land that would allow it to drive to Crimea not counting the Kherch (Crimean) Bridge. This would require Ukraine taking back territory that includes at least some coastline between Henichesk and the Russian border near Taganrog, which would imply this territory not being colored in red on the map. For the purposes of this market, if the small strip of land to the south of "Molochnoye Ozera", south of Melitopol, is still red, it would classify as Russian continuing to have a land bridge from Russia, even if Ukraine bombs the bridge which actually connects that territory. 

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .09 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .09*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.44. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 2/1/2024