Will a Nuclear Bomb Explode in Ukraine in 2023?

Market Resolved: NO


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2023-09-21 2023-12-31 USD 0.075% -0.025%


This is a market on whether a nuclear bomb (or weapon) will detonate in Ukraine any time in 2023. We will include in this the entire UN-recognized territory of Ukraine including Crimea and Donbass. 

Instead, there are "maker subsidies" paid for with "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched by another trader later. The maker subsidies are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20, and the taker fee would also be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here

The "Bet Locks" feature has been enabled on 11/28/2022.  This means that bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.