Will Black Students Be Less Than 10% of the Ivy League Class of 2028?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 86%
European Decimal Odds: 1.163
American Odds: -614.3
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-10-23 2024-09-30 USD 0%


For this market, we will consider only the percentage of Black or African-American students in the incoming class of 2028 at Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and Columbia using statistics publicly reported from these universities or affiliated agencies. If any of these schools do not report the percentage of Black or African-American students in the next freshman class, they will be dropped from the average. If none are reported, then this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of any ambiguity, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment.

For reference, we found the following statistics for the share of Black / African-American students in the Class of 2027:

Harvard: 14.1%

Columbia: 20.0%

Yale: 14%

Princeton: 9%

We will take the individual percentages to the nearest whole number from all schools with available data, and take the average, rounding the final result to the nearest tenth of a percent. For the reference case, this would be e.g. 14.3%.

The deadline to report is September 30th, 2024 at 11:59PM ET. If the data for all colleges is released before that date, the market may be resolved sooner. Otherwise, the average will be calculated based on all colleges with available data at that time.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.