Will Israel Take Khan Younis City Hall by December 15th?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 7%
European Decimal Odds: 14.286
American Odds: +1328.6
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-11-18 2023-12-16 USD 0%


This is a market on whether the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will take possession of the Khan Younis City Hall in southern Gaza (also called municipality; located at: 31°20'39.0"N 34°18'34.5"E) according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) by December 15th. A link to the ISW's map is here. The area of the map including the Khan Younis City Hall must be shaded light blue, the color indicating "Reported Israeli Clearing Operations". Note that "Claimed Israeli Further Advances" will not count as Israeli control. If the ISW's map doesn't exist this will resolve according to other ISW reporting or, if the ISW does not comment on it, based on other credible news sources. If no credible sources report that the city hall in Khan Younis has been taken, the market resolves to "No". Insight Prediction reserves the right to make a judgement call based on the best available evidence in the event that resolution is ambiguous.  

On net, Insight Prediction collects no fees of any kind on this market. But, this market includes "maker" subsidies received from "takers" to encourage liquidity providing. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .1 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .05*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .1 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.1*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.60, and the taker fee would also be $1.60. The full fee schedule is here

Here is a map of the the City Hall's location: