Will There Be a Prolonged Ceasefire Between Hamas and Israel by December 31st?

Market Resolved: NO


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2023-11-19 2024-01-11 USD 0.1% -0.1%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement lasting at least 10 days, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before December 31st, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 10 days and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on December 31st, for example, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues until January 10th).

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .05 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .05*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .1 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.05*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.80, and the taker fee would be $1.60. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information