Will There Be a Nuclear Explosion in Ukraine by June 30th, 2024?

Contract

Best Yes Price

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2024-01-01 2024-06-30 USD 0%

Rules

This question will resolve "Yes" if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announces that there has been an accident or incident level 4 or higher according to the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) in Ukraine by midnight on December 31st, 2022. The INES scale is from 0 to 7, and was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA in order to enable prompt communication of the severity of nuclear accidents.

A level 4 incident is described by the IAEA as "an accident with local consequences". 

Impact on people and environment:

  • Minor release of radioactive material unlikely to result in implementation of planned countermeasures other than local food controls.
  • At least one death from radiation.

Impact on radiological barriers and control:

  • Fuel melt or damage to fuel resulting in more than 0.1% release of core inventory.
  • Release of significant quantities of radioactive material within an installation with a high probability of significant public exposure.

If there is a nuclear incident, but either the IAEA does not report it, or it is categorized as level 3 or below, or not categorized, then this market will resolve as "No". We will use Ukraine's pre-2014 borders, which include Crimea and the Donbass.

The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.  This means that bets placed after announcement of Putin leaving office or confirmation will be returned. This could also include an announcement that Putin has suffered a debilitating injury, such as a stroke or heart attack, or from from a car accident that ultimately results in him leaving office, or from an announcement that he will step down in the future. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.

Insight Prediction is not taking any fees on net in this market. Instead, there are "maker subsidies" paid for with "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched by another trader later. The maker subsidies are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20, and the taker fee would also be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: June 30th, 2024.