Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine by June?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1.7%
European Decimal Odds: 58.824
American Odds: +5782.4
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-02-07 2024-02-01 05:26 ET 2024-06-30 USD 0.075%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.