Presidential Election: Will Republicans win a Solid Blue State?

Contract

Best Yes Price

15¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 15%
European Decimal Odds: 6.667
American Odds: +566.7
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Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2024-04-21 2024-04-19 12:11 ET 2024-12-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican candidate for president wins the popular vote in any solid blue state(s) in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Solid blue states include: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. Solid blue states are defined using the Cook Political Report's ratings as of this market's inception. Further changes to cook political report's rankings will not be considered for this market. Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Democratic candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.