Will Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity Be Proven in 2024?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 11%
European Decimal Odds: 9.091
American Odds: +809.1
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-05-16 2025-01-01 USD 0.075%


This market will resolve to "yes" if Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is definitively proven in 2024. Insight Prediction reserves the right of discretion in the event that there is dispute.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.

The "Bet Locks" feature has been enabled on 11/27/2022.  This means that bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.