Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30, 2024?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1.5%
European Decimal Odds: 66.667
American Odds: +6566.7
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-05-26 2024-02-01 05:26 ET 2024-06-30 USD 0.075%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon detonates anywhere in the world between December 27, 2023, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.