Is Craig Wright actually Satoshi Nakamoto?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1.8%
European Decimal Odds: 55.556
American Odds: +5455.6
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-06-05 2024-02-27 15:40 ET 2024-06-30 USD 0.075%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if Craig Steven Wright is proven to be Bitcoin creator "Satoshi Nakamoto", or part of a collective called "Satoshi Nakamoto", by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence that Craig Steven Wright is the creator of Bitcoin, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.