Will Iran Respond Militarily by Friday?

Market Expired

Contract

Best Yes Price

75¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 75%
European Decimal Odds: 1.333
American Odds: -300
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-07-31 2024-07-31 01:42 ET 2024-08-02 USD 0.075%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between July 30 and August 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.

$100