Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Market Information
| Market Open Date | Market Close Date | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-21 | USD |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an armistice or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine that is:
1) indicative of the end of the war. Thus, if it is a time-limited agreement, it must apply for a duration of at least two years. In particular, a temporary ceasefire while peace negotiations take place, or while Ukraine holds an election, would not count (even if the duration of peace negotiations is unclear). A peace agreement for a duration of 5 years after which point it needs to be renegotiated would count.
2) applicable to all theaters of the war. Thus, a ceasefire that applies only to deep strikes or to the sea would not count. (Note that it need not cover non-kinetic aspects of the war, such as cyber operations).
The armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement only needs to be announced, and not necessarily implemented, by April 19th, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. It must be announced by both Ukraine and Russia.
There are no fees of any kind on this market.