Chess: Will FIDE Ban Hans Niemann?

Contract

Best Yes Price

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 8%
European Decimal Odds: 12.5
American Odds: +1150
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-10-11 2023-02-01 USD 0%

Rules

Background: GM Magnus Carlsen withdrew from the 2022 Sinquefield Cup following his loss against GM Hans Neimann over the board (OTB). Since then, there has been considerable controversy and statements across the board regarding possible cheating allegations against Neimann. Neimann has consistently defended himself by claiming he has never cheated in OTB tournaments and has only cheated online in the past on several occasions. Notably, chess.com published a report on October 4 indicating that the degree and recency of online cheating incidents was far more serious than claimed by Niemann. On September 29, FIDE’s Fair Play Commission (FPL) formed an investigatory panel to navigate the Carlsen-Niemann controversy and ascertain the veracity of allegations.

This market will resolve positively if GM Hans Niemann is banned or has his membership suspended by FIDE for any duration of time prior to January 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market will be resolved based on official reporting from FIDE, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. If Hans Niemann is not banned or suspended by FIDE on or before January 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then this market will resolve to “No”. Any future appeal regarding a decision of FIDE on Hans Niemann will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.  If a ban or suspension of membership by FIDE is finalized by the end date but does not take effect until after the end date, then the market will still resolve to “Yes”. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 02/01/2023

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here