Chess: Will GM Hans Niemann Win His Lawsuit?

Market Resolved: NO


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-10-21 2024-01-01 USD 0%


Background: On October 20, 2022 GM Hans Niemann announced that he had filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court, specifically the Eastern District of Missouri: Eastern Division. In his lawsuit, Niemann names Magnus Carlsen, Play Magnus,, Daniel Rensch, and Hikaru Nakamura as defendants. Neimann alleged that the defendants spread false accusations against him regarding cheating and leveraged their positions to unfairly tarnish his reputation.

Rules: This market will resolve positively if Niemann v. Carlsen (E.D. Mo., 4:22-cv-01110) results in Hans Niemann being entitled to any damages from one or more of the named defendants, regardless of the amount awarded to him, by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. Damages must (at minimum) exceed the restitution of legal fees. This market can be immediately resolved once a verdict has been reached in Niemann v. Carlsen. If no damages have been awarded to Niemass as a result of Niemann v. Carlsen by December 31, 2023 then the market will resolve to "No". If the case is settled out of court or otherwise dissolved, then the market can also be immediately resolved to "No". Any appeal of the decision in Niemann v. Carlsen will have no bearing on the resolution of this market, and only the initial verdict by the court will be considered. The market will be resolved based on official reporting from the United States District Court or Eastern District of Missouri, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 01/01/2024

Lawsuit Excerpt: "Accordingly, Niemann asserts the following claims against Defendants: (1) slander; (2) libel; (3) unlawful group boycott under the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. § 1, et. seq.; (4) tortious interference with contract and business expectancies; and (5) civil conspiracy. Niemann seeks damages in an amount to be determined at trial, but no less than One Hundred Million Dollars ($100,000,000)."