Will Russia Invade Any Country Other Than Ukraine in 2022?

Market Resolved: NO


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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-02-25 2023-01-04 USD 3%


This question will resolve positively if, between February 24, 2022 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that >100 Russian ground troops have entered another country. From the statement, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders and without permission of the currently recognized government of that country or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from Feb 24, 2022 to Jan 1, 2023." Question via Metaculus

There is a 3% profit fee for this market. End Date: 01/01/2023

Update: The "Bet Locks" feature has been enabled on 11/27/2022.  This means that bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.