Who Will Win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination?

Contract

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

Latest Yes Price

44.9ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 44.9%
European Decimal Odds: 2.227
American Odds: +122.7
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis

Latest Yes Price

33ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 33%
European Decimal Odds: 3.03
American Odds: +203
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Mike Pence
Mike Pence

Latest Yes Price

3ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley

Latest Yes Price

3.5ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3.5%
European Decimal Odds: 28.571
American Odds: +2757.1
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Kanye West
Kanye West

Latest Yes Price

--

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Contract

Tom Cotton
Tom Cotton

Latest Yes Price

2.5ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2.5%
European Decimal Odds: 40
American Odds: +3900
Buy
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Sell
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Contract

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio

Latest Yes Price

2ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem

Latest Yes Price

2ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Larry Hogan
Larry Hogan

Latest Yes Price

2.5ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2.5%
European Decimal Odds: 40
American Odds: +3900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Rick Scott
Rick Scott

Latest Yes Price

1ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
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Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley

Latest Yes Price

1ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
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Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr.

Latest Yes Price

0.5ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.5%
European Decimal Odds: 200
American Odds: +19900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Glenn Youngkin
Glenn Youngkin

Latest Yes Price

3ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Tim Scott
Tim Scott

Latest Yes Price

2ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson

Latest Yes Price

2ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz

Latest Yes Price

2ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney

Latest Yes Price

0.5ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.5%
European Decimal Odds: 200
American Odds: +19900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Mike Pompeo
Mike Pompeo

Latest Yes Price

0.2ยข

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 0.2%
European Decimal Odds: 500
American Odds: +49900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-07-06 2023-07-06 USD 0%

Rules

The market will resolve positively based on the individual who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of a nominee for any reason prior to election day but after the confirmation of the nominee at the Republican National Convention will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 12/31/2024