Will Russia Take Bakhmut by February 28th, 2023?

Contract

Best Yes Price

34¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 34%
European Decimal Odds: 2.941
American Odds: +194.1
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-03 2023-03-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve as "Yes" if, at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by February 28th, 2023, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Thus, an early resolution is possible. A picture of the "Bakhmut 2" station is below. If the ISW map is not available liveuamap will be used as a secondary resolution source. 

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 28/3/2023