Will a Motion to Vacate the Chair Pass the US House Before June?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 15%
European Decimal Odds: 6.667
American Odds: +566.7
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-11 2023-06-02 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if a “Motion to Vacate the Chair” passes the House of Representatives in the 118th US Congress by May 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. If Speaker Kevin McCarthy leaves office for any other reason than a motion to vacate, then this will not be sufficient for resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US Congress, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 06/01/2023

Context: Kevin McCarthy (R) was elected Speaker of the House for the 118th US Congress in the early hours of January 7, 2023. One of the compromises that McCarthy agreed to implement during his bid for speaker included allowing even a single member of the House majority to start a “Motion to Vacate the Chair” (no-confidence vote). If such a vote were successful, this would result in the removal of the Speaker.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.