Will the US President Physically Attend the Next G7 Summit in 2025?

Contract

Best Yes Price

92¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 92%
European Decimal Odds: 1.087
American Odds: -1150
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2024-06-11 2025-12-31 USD 0.075% -0.025%

Rules

Background Context: The next G7 Summit is currently scheduled to be held in 2025 by Canada, where federal laws prevent those with felony convictions from entering the country unless they have been granted exceptions.

“Any US Citizen or permanent resident that has a felony conviction on their criminal record may be deemed inadmissible to Canada”

This market will resolve positively if the US President physically attends the first G7 Summit held between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59PM ET. 

Market resolution will be determined by official governmental sources, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of any ambiguity, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. 

Note: If the position of US President is vacant or the US President is otherwise incarcerated at the time of the G7 Summit, any acting US President will be considered the US President for the purposes of this market.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20. The maker subsidy for the same trade would be $0.40.