Will Russia Control Any Formerly Ukrainian Territories Other Than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on September 1, 2023?

Contract

Best Yes Price

78¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 78%
European Decimal Odds: 1.282
American Odds: -354.5
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-09 2023-09-02 USD 0%

Rules

This is a market on whether Russia will control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on September 1, 2023. For the purposes of this market, LNR and DNR are defined at the January 1, 2014 borders. Thus this is a market on whether Russia will still control any territory outside of Donetsk or Luhansk. The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. Note that, as of the date of market creation (January 8th, 2023), according to the ISW, Russia currently controls territory in Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 9/3/2023