How Many Motion to Vacate Votes in the US House Before April?

Contract

0

Best Yes Price

91¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 91%
European Decimal Odds: 1.099
American Odds: -1011.1
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

1

Best Yes Price

50¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 50%
European Decimal Odds: 2
American Odds: +100
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

2

Best Yes Price

35¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 35%
European Decimal Odds: 2.857
American Odds: +185.7
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

3 or More

Best Yes Price

24¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 24%
European Decimal Odds: 4.167
American Odds: +316.7
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-12 2023-04-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively to the bracket containing the number of times that a "Motion to Vacate the Chair" is voted on by the full House of Representatives in the 118th US Congress by March 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. Whether such a motion/resolution passes or fails will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a "Motion to Vacate the Chair" must have the effect of vacating the Speaker of the House. Procedural votes to consider a motion to vacate or committee/sub-committee votes recommending to vacate the Speaker will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official information from the US Congress, or if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 04/01/2023

Context: Kevin McCarthy (R) was elected Speaker of the House for the 118th US Congress in the early hours of January 7, 2023. One of the compromises that McCarthy agreed to implement during his bid for speaker included allowing even a single member of the House majority to start a “Motion to Vacate the Chair” (no-confidence vote). If such a vote were successful, this would result in the removal of the Speaker.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.