Will Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or Hunter Biden be Charged with a Federal or State Crime Before July?

Contract

Donald J. Trump

Best Yes Price

90¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 90%
European Decimal Odds: 1.111
American Odds: -900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
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Contract

Joseph R. Biden

Best Yes Price

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Hunter Biden

Best Yes Price

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 9%
European Decimal Odds: 11.111
American Odds: +1011.1
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-15 2023-06-02 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively to the bracket containing the person who is the first to be formally charged (or indicted) with a state or federal crime by June 30, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. If none of the listed people are indicted or charged with a crime, then all brackets will resolve to "No". Any subsequent charges or indictments after the first will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, "Donald J. Trump" refers explictly to former President Trump while "Joseph R. Biden" refers to President Biden and "Hunter Biden" refers to the son of President Biden.

Note: In the event that multiple brackets are simultaneously charged at the same time, then only the first alphabetically will resolve positively (e.g. Joseph R. Biden and Hunter Biden would resolve positively to Hunter Biden).

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.