Will the NBER Declare a Recession in 2023?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 4%
European Decimal Odds: 25
American Odds: +2400
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-14 2024-04-01 USD 0%


This is a market on whether the NBER will declare that the US economy was in a recession during 2023. The deadline in March 31, 2024, as the NBER can sometimes declare recessions retrospectively. This market can also resolve early if a recession is announced. If the NBER announces in 2023 that a recession occurred in 2022, it would not count unless they also declare that the recession continued in to 2023. Resolves: April 1, 2024

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .09 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .09*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.44. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.