What Will Core CPI-U Inflation Be in 2023?

Contract

At 2.0% or Below

Best Yes Price

40¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 40%
European Decimal Odds: 2.5
American Odds: +150
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

2.1% to 4.0%

Best Yes Price

60¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 60%
European Decimal Odds: 1.667
American Odds: -150
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

4.1% or Above

Best Yes Price

18¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 18%
European Decimal Odds: 5.556
American Odds: +455.6
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-01-23 2024-01-14 USD 0%

Rules

This is a market on what the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): All Items less food and energy, unadjusted percent change, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be for December, 2023.  This is not the average price level in 2022 divided by the average price level in 2021, but rather is the one decimal-value change that can be found in the December CPI table under the column "Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023". From Dec. 2021 to Dec. 2022, the Core CPI-U was 5.7%. End date: January 14, 2024.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.