Will There Be an Armed Conflict Between Taiwan and China by 2023?



Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
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Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-02-23 2023-01-01 USD 3%


This question will resolve positively if there are at least three credible sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before January 1st, 2023. Question taken in part from MetaculusThere is a 3% profit fee on this market. End Date 01/01/2023

Update: The "Bet Locks" feature has been enabled on 11/27/2022.  This means that bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.