Who Will Win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Contract

Joe Biden
Joe Biden

Latest Yes Price

37¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 37%
European Decimal Odds: 2.703
American Odds: +170.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
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Contract

Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom

Latest Yes Price

16¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 16%
European Decimal Odds: 6.25
American Odds: +525
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
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Contract

Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris

Latest Yes Price

14¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 14%
European Decimal Odds: 7.143
American Odds: +614.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
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Contract

Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg

Latest Yes Price

14¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 14%
European Decimal Odds: 7.143
American Odds: +614.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton

Latest Yes Price

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 6%
European Decimal Odds: 16.667
American Odds: +1566.7
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Amy Klobuchar
Amy Klobuchar

Latest Yes Price

3.6¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3.6%
European Decimal Odds: 27.778
American Odds: +2677.8
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
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Contract

Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders

Latest Yes Price

3.5¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3.5%
European Decimal Odds: 28.571
American Odds: +2757.1
Buy
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Contract

Stacey Abrams
Stacey Abrams

Latest Yes Price

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Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Contract

Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren

Latest Yes Price

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Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Contract

A. Ocasio-Cortez
A. Ocasio-Cortez

Latest Yes Price

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Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Contract

Sherrod Brown
Sherrod Brown

Latest Yes Price

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Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Sell
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-07-14 2024-10-01 USD 0%

Rules

The market will resolve positively based on the individual who is the 2024 nominee of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Official statements from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or credible consensus reporting will be sufficient for resolution. Replacement of a nominee for any reason prior to election day but after the confirmation of the nominee at the Democratic National Convention will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 10/01/2024