Will Russia Take Bakhmut by April 20th, 2023?

Market Resolved: NO


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-02-16 2023-04-21 USD 0%


This market will resolve as "Yes" if, at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20th, 2023, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Thus, an early resolution is possible. A picture of the "Bakhmut 2" station is below. (Update: If this area is shaded red, the market will resolve yes. If it is shaded orange or not shaded, it will resolve No.) If the ISW map is not available liveuamap will be used as a secondary resolution source. 

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 20/4/2023