How Long Will the Russia-Ukraine War of 2022 Last?

Contract

Ends by March 5th
Ends by March 5th

Latest Yes Price

0.1¢

Options

Sell
Bid Price Bid Size
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size

Contract

After March 5th but by March 15th
After March 5th but by March 15th

Latest Yes Price

0.1¢

Options

Sell
Bid Price Bid Size
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size

Contract

After March 15th but by March 31st
After March 15th but by March 31st

Latest Yes Price

0.1¢

Options

Sell
Bid Price Bid Size
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size

Contract

After March 31st but by June 30th
After March 31st but by June 30th

Latest Yes Price

0.5¢

Options

Sell
Bid Price Bid Size
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size

Contract

After June 30th
After June 30th

Latest Yes Price

99.5¢

Options

Sell
Bid Price Bid Size
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-02-26 2022-07-05 USD 3%

Rules

This is a market on how long the Russia-Ukraine War of 2022 will last. It will be decided according to which of these events happens first: (1) there is a surrender, or (2) if either government announces the end of military operations, or an end to hostilities. Note that resolution can be triggered by announcements and may not correspond to when the end of fighting actually occurs. (Such as if one side surrenders, it is reported by several credible media sources, but then fighting ends up continuing after that date. It will still resolve on the basis of the first announcement.)

For example if an end to hostilities is announced on 3/8/2022, the contract market for “March 10” would resolve as “Yes” and all other markets as “No”. If an announcement occurs on March 15th, then the contract "After March 5th but by March 15th" would be satisfied. 

Fees on this market are 3% of profits.